CLV is the single most predictive marker that an edge is real. Capture rate above
55% over a meaningful sample is consistent with a profitable model independent of
short-run win-rate variance.
Factor reliability
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Calibration
model edge vs realized win rate
80%70%60%50%40%
0–22–44–66–88+
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Honest read
where the engine wins · where it's still learning
Working
Selectivity over volume. The engine now posts only its
calibrated edge band — roughly 7.5–11.5, where win probability
peaks — and gates every play on positive expected value.
Pitching-led composites remain the most stable signal, and home-side spots
carry the real edge, so road favorites are no longer backed. Most games don't
clear the bar — and that's the point.
Still learning
The calibration is fresh and the sample is small — treat the band as
directional, not gospel, until more results land.
CLV runs slightly negative in the active band: we're on the
right side but entering at worse-than-closing prices, so earlier line capture is
the next lever. Totals stay conservative — overs are paused; only high-conviction
unders post.